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PTP

Money-Vote Gap

Leaderboard

Two views into the gap between PAC dollars in and votes out. Members ranks (member, industry) cells by how far the member's Yes-rate diverges from the median for their own party in the same chamber. Bills ranks bills by revealed-preference subterfuge — industries lobbying to pass the bill while not appearing in its stated subject tags.Methodology →

#MemberIndustryPAC $Yes / nParty Δ (95% CI)Chamber ΔConfidence
26Brian Mast
R-FL · House
Auto$50k83% (6)-17[-56, -3]-17vs 100%Preliminary
27Lauren Boebert
R-CO · House
Auto$50k83% (6)-17[-56, -3]-17vs 100%Preliminary
28Mark Messmer
R-IN · House
Auto$110k83% (6)-17[-56, -3]-17vs 100%Preliminary
29Laurel Lee
R-FL · House
Health insurance$215k33% (9)-34[-55, -2]-28vs 61%Preliminary
30Elijah Crane
R-AZ · House
Financial services$84k76% (29)-14[-32, -2]-7vs 83%Preliminary
31Daniel Meuser
R-PA · House
Financial services$129k76% (29)-14[-32, -2]-7vs 83%Preliminary
32Andy Barr
R-KY · House
Financial services$400k76% (29)-14[-32, -2]-7vs 83%Preliminary
33Cindy Hyde-Smith
R-MS · Senate
Agriculture$60k66% (41)+18[+2, +30]+6vs 60%Preliminary
34Shelley Moore Capito
R-WV · Senate
Agriculture$50k13% (8)-35[-46, -1]-47vs 60%Preliminary
35Byron Donalds
R-FL · House
Electric utilities$70k70% (40)-13[-28, -1]-10vs 80%Preliminary
36Carlos Gimenez
R-FL · House
Electric utilities$56k70% (40)-13[-28, -1]-10vs 80%Preliminary
37Shelley Moore Capito
R-WV · Senate
Oil & gas$150k75% (162)+9[+1, +14]+11vs 64%Preliminary
38Cynthia Lummis
R-WY · Senate
Agriculture$150k67% (30)+19[+0, +32]+7vs 60%Preliminary
39John Barrasso
R-WY · Senate
Oil & gas$285k60% (258)-6[-12, 0]-4vs 64%Preliminary
40Cynthia Lummis
R-WY · Senate
Tech$50k20% (5)-40[-56, +2]-40vs 60%CI ∋ 0
41Adelita Grijalva
D-AZ · House
Education$50k20% (5)-37[-53, +5]-37vs 57%CI ∋ 0
42Susie Lee
D-NV · House
Defense & aerospace$300k20% (10)-29[-43, +2]-57vs 77%CI ∋ 0
43André Carson
D-IN · House
Defense & aerospace$90k20% (10)-29[-43, +2]-57vs 77%CI ∋ 0
44Adam Smith
D-WA · House
Defense & aerospace$1.1M20% (10)-29[-43, +2]-57vs 77%CI ∋ 0
45April McClain Delaney
D-MD · House
Defense & aerospace$50k20% (10)-29[-43, +2]-57vs 77%CI ∋ 0
46Linda Sánchez
D-CA · House
Defense & aerospace$90k20% (10)-29[-43, +2]-57vs 77%CI ∋ 0
47Joe Courtney
D-CT · House
Defense & aerospace$590k20% (10)-29[-43, +2]-57vs 77%CI ∋ 0
48Andrew Garbarino
R-NY · House
Labor unions$525k71% (7)+28[-7, +49]+0vs 71%CI ∋ 0
49Adam Smith
D-WA · House
Tech$375k29% (7)-28[-49, +7]-54vs 83%CI ∋ 0
50Linda Sánchez
D-CA · House
Tech$68k29% (7)-28[-49, +7]-54vs 83%CI ∋ 0

Members tab — Party Δ (primary) = member's Yes% − party median Yes% on the same industry's bills (same chamber, same cycle), with Wilson 95% confidence bounds. Chamber Δ (secondary, dim) = member's Yes% − chamber median Yes%. Chamber Δ is partisan-biased when the chamber has a partisan majority; shown for context but ranking uses Party Δ.

Sorting: rows are ranked by the lower bound of |Party Δ| at 95% confidence — i.e. the minimum deviation we can claim given the sample size. When the confidence interval on Party Δ crosses zero, the row is marked CI ∋ 0: the direction of the deviation is not confidently signed and the row ranks below all cells with a confidently-signed deviation. This kills the small-sample noise floor that point-estimate ranking lets through.

Confidence column: CI ∋ 0 means direction not confidently signed (Wilson CI on the deviation crosses zero). Preliminary means the direction IS signed but the cell does not pass Benjamini-Hochberg FDR correction across all leaderboard cells — could be a false positive from running ~1500 tests; treat as suggestive. A severity label (Slight / Moderate / High / Extreme) means the cell is BOTH confidently signed AND passes FDR — the rigorous-stats-claim tier.

Min 5 votes per cell, ≥$1 in industry PAC dollars. Min 5 same-party members in the pool for Party Δ; rows below that floor show "low-n party" and rank by Chamber Δ. See docs/audits/mvg-partisan-median-artifact-2026-05-14.md (party-conditional fix) and docs/audits/mvg-wilson-ci-2026-05-15.md (Wilson CI rigor) for the methodology audits.

Bills tab: subterfuge_score = Σ over unstated supporters of (1 + log₁₀(filings)). See methodology for the full audit.