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PTP

Money-Vote Gap

Leaderboard

Two views into the gap between PAC dollars in and votes out. Members ranks (member, industry) cells by how far the member's Yes-rate diverges from the median for their own party in the same chamber. Bills ranks bills by revealed-preference subterfuge — industries lobbying to pass the bill while not appearing in its stated subject tags.Methodology →

Spotlightstrongest confidently-signed within-party deviation

Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA) voted +20 points more pro-defense & aerospace than the median Senate Republican (78% Yes vs 58% Yes) after taking $50k from Defense & aerospace PACs.

Party Δ +20 [+13, +25] 95% CI145/187 votesmedian Senate/House Republican pool: n=10full profile →
#MemberIndustryPAC $Yes / nParty Δ (95% CI)Chamber ΔConfidence
1Lindsey Graham
R-SC · Senate
Health insurance$50k51% (279)+32[+26, +38]-1vs 53%Extreme
2Deb Fischer
R-NE · Senate
Health insurance$115k51% (155)+32[+24, +40]-1vs 53%Extreme
3Dina Titus
D-NV · House
Tech$90k0% (7)-57[-57, -22]-83vs 83%Preliminary
4Marie Perez
D-WA · House
Construction$50k85% (20)+35[+14, +45]+20vs 65%Preliminary
5Joni Ernst
R-IA · Senate
Defense & aerospace$50k78% (187)+20[+13, +25]+11vs 67%High
6John Barrasso
R-WY · Senate
Pharmaceutical$80k44% (189)+20[+13, +27]+0vs 44%Moderate
7Shelley Moore Capito
R-WV · Senate
Transportation$200k79% (52)+25[+12, +34]+14vs 65%High
8Lisa Murkowski
R-AK · Senate
Defense & aerospace$85k74% (322)+16[+11, +20]+7vs 67%Moderate
9Dan Sullivan
R-AK · Senate
Hospitals & healthcare$50k51% (115)+19[+10, +28]+4vs 48%Moderate
10Derek Schmidt
R-KS · House
Auto$125k67% (6)-33[-70, -10]-33vs 100%Preliminary
11John Barrasso
R-WY · Senate
Banking$50k57% (213)-16[-23, -10]-13vs 70%Moderate
12Cindy Hyde-Smith
R-MS · Senate
Defense & aerospace$100k75% (130)+17[+9, +24]+8vs 67%Moderate
13Dina Titus
D-NV · House
Defense & aerospace$50k10% (10)-39[-47, -9]-67vs 77%Preliminary
14Deb Fischer
R-NE · Senate
Defense & aerospace$230k73% (200)+15[+9, +21]+6vs 67%Moderate
15John Barrasso
R-WY · Senate
Electric utilities$85k59% (190)-14[-21, -7]-13vs 72%Moderate
16Laurel Lee
R-FL · House
Pharmaceutical$125k33% (9)-38[-59, -6]-21vs 54%Preliminary
17Byron Donalds
R-FL · House
Tech$50k67% (30)-20[-38, -6]-16vs 83%Preliminary
18Don Bacon
R-NE · House
Labor unions$177k86% (7)+43[+6, +54]+15vs 71%Preliminary
19John Barrasso
R-WY · Senate
Hospitals & healthcare$50k44% (222)+12[+5, +18]-3vs 48%Moderate
20Deb Fischer
R-NE · Senate
Agriculture$225k65% (71)+17[+5, +26]+5vs 60%Preliminary
21Deb Fischer
R-NE · Senate
Transportation$240k70% (61)+16[+4, +26]+5vs 65%Preliminary
22Lindsey Graham
R-SC · Senate
Agriculture$50k59% (185)+11[+4, +18]-1vs 60%Preliminary
23Shelley Moore Capito
R-WV · Senate
Tech$50k75% (64)+15[+3, +24]+15vs 60%Preliminary
24Cliff Bentz
R-OR · House
Auto$155k83% (6)-17[-56, -3]-17vs 100%Preliminary
25Ben Cline
R-VA · House
Auto$60k83% (6)-17[-56, -3]-17vs 100%Preliminary

Members tab — Party Δ (primary) = member's Yes% − party median Yes% on the same industry's bills (same chamber, same cycle), with Wilson 95% confidence bounds. Chamber Δ (secondary, dim) = member's Yes% − chamber median Yes%. Chamber Δ is partisan-biased when the chamber has a partisan majority; shown for context but ranking uses Party Δ.

Sorting: rows are ranked by the lower bound of |Party Δ| at 95% confidence — i.e. the minimum deviation we can claim given the sample size. When the confidence interval on Party Δ crosses zero, the row is marked CI ∋ 0: the direction of the deviation is not confidently signed and the row ranks below all cells with a confidently-signed deviation. This kills the small-sample noise floor that point-estimate ranking lets through.

Confidence column: CI ∋ 0 means direction not confidently signed (Wilson CI on the deviation crosses zero). Preliminary means the direction IS signed but the cell does not pass Benjamini-Hochberg FDR correction across all leaderboard cells — could be a false positive from running ~1500 tests; treat as suggestive. A severity label (Slight / Moderate / High / Extreme) means the cell is BOTH confidently signed AND passes FDR — the rigorous-stats-claim tier.

Min 5 votes per cell, ≥$1 in industry PAC dollars. Min 5 same-party members in the pool for Party Δ; rows below that floor show "low-n party" and rank by Chamber Δ. See docs/audits/mvg-partisan-median-artifact-2026-05-14.md (party-conditional fix) and docs/audits/mvg-wilson-ci-2026-05-15.md (Wilson CI rigor) for the methodology audits.

Bills tab: subterfuge_score = Σ over unstated supporters of (1 + log₁₀(filings)). See methodology for the full audit.